WELCOME to QuantCoach.com, the only site on the world-wide web that provides meaningful professional football coaching statistics. QuantCoach.com's revolutionary coaching statistics are derived from a peer-reviewed and generally accepted theory of competition known as Growth Theory. Veteran coach Bill Parcells once said, "If they want you to cook the dinner, at least they ought to let you shop for some of the groceries." But Growth Theory teaches us that success "springs from better recipes, not just from more cooking." In professional football, those "recipes" are the plays that coaches design. Simply, QuantCoach.com's coaching statistics separate the contribution of plays to pro football success from the contribution of players.

THE ARCHIVES (2011-Part 1)

SUPER BOWL PREVIEW

New England (-3) vs. New York Giants

PLAY DESIGN DIFFERENTIAL RANKINGS: New England 7th; NY Giants 5th
PLAYER PRODUCITIVITY DIFFERENTIAL RANKINGS: New England 3rd; NY Giants 4th
TURNOVER MARGIN: New England 3rd (+17); NY Giants T7th (+7)

Its another Super Bowl where theteamsarethisclosestatistically.

As this table shows, New England and New York are virtually equal in every statistical category. The Patriots protect the passer a little better than the Giants; New York pressures the passer a little better than New England. Both teams throw the ball well and neither defends the pass very well. It should be interesting.

With no obvious statistical edge, the QuantCoach looked back at the regular season meeting in Week 9, which the Giants won 24-20. New York wide receiver Hakeem Nicks and running back Ahmad Bradshaw did not play in that game. The Giants also won the turnover battle, 4-2, as Patriots' quarterback Tom Brady threw two interceptions and lost a fumble. On the other side of ball, New England's hobbled tight end, Rob Gronkowski, had a big game (8-101-TD). He might not be at full speed on Sunday.

So those picking New York have some good reasons to think the Giants will win.

But QC is not one of them.

In the Week 9 game, Brady played well in the first half, but could not overcome starting drives at his own 10, 6, 17, 20, 11, and 9 yard lines. Usually reliable kicker Stephen Gostkowski missed a 27-yard field goal. Brady's turnovers cost the Patriots 3 points and gave the Giants 10-points. Still, with less than 2 minutes to play, New England led 20-17 and might have survived if backup defensive back Sergio Brown had not run over Victor Cruz and drawn a penalty that gave New York a first down at the Patriots' 1-yard line.

The game was a good demonstration of a New England quality that heretofore has been completely overlooked.

Nobody in the NFL is better than Bill Belichick's Patriots when the game is not going as designed.

When a game is going as designed and expected, every team in the NFL looks good. Indeed, the better designed team wins in the NFL 75 percent of the time. But what is a team's record in "black swan" games when the team that wins is not designed as well as the loser. The records of the Super Bowl teams over the past two years in such games are:

New England: 10-1 (.909)
New York: 3-5 (.400)

In other words, the Patriots have been involved in more games than the Giants where the "better team" loses and New England tends to win such games by a more than 2-1 margin compared to New York. Of course, turnovers can still ruin the Patriots (just like any other team), as they did in New England's only "black swan" loss in the last two years, the loss to the Giants in Week 9.

But, if Brady avoids turnovers, the QuantCoach likes New England to win (and maybe even cover if the point spread drops below 3 points before kickoff) whether the Patriots out play New York or not.

Like life in Jurrasic Park or Peter Griffin's washing machine, Belichick finds a way.
QC's Pick: New England (SU and ATS)

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Championship Round Thoughts

Baltimore's 23-20 loss to New England in the AFC Championship Game was an almost perfect carbon copy of the Ravens' 23-20 loss to the Patriots in Week 6 of the 2010 season. In both games, Baltimore enjoyed a plus-2 turnover edge. Quarterback Joe Flacco averaged 8.34 (2010) and 8.35 (AFC Title) yards per pass attempt while Tom Brady averaged 6.5 and 6.3, respectively. In 2010, Baltimore was about 6% better designed and 4.19 more productive while in the AFC Championship the Ravens were 5.6% better designed and 4.75 more productive. In 2010, the Patriots won on kicker Steven Gostkowski's field goal in overtime. In the AFC Title, the Patriots won when Baltimore kicker Billy Cundiff's missed field goal prevented overtime. Amazing.

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San Francisco punt returner Kyle Williams lost 2 fumbles in the 49ers 20-17 loss to New York in the NFC Championship Game. But just as significantly, it was only the third time all year that the opposition did not subsidize San Francisco with at least 2 turnovers. During the regular season, Detroit did not give Jim Harbaugh's team any turnovers, but the 49ers still won 24-19. Brother John's Baltimore team did turn the ball over in the Ravens 16-6 win in the Har Bowl. Giants quarterback Eli Manning was sacked, hit, and pressured frequently, but he stubbornly refused to make the big mistake. That is why New York is in the Super Bowl.

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Dennis Allen for Hue Jackson

What is the Raiders' new general manager Reggie McKenzie thinking?

Michael Lombardi and Jason LaCanfora have reported on twitter that McKenzie has hired Denver defensive coordinator Dennis Allen to replace Hue Jackson as the head coach of the Raiders.

Can this be justified? Let's look at the numbers.

Both Oakland and the Broncos were 8-8 last year. So if a coach "is what his record says he is," as Bill Parcells once said, this does not look like an upgrade. It looks even worse if you examine the coaching statistics.

In 2011, Denver ranked 27th in play design differential. All of the head coaches and their assistants who ranked between 26th and 32nd except the Broncos' Fox and Minnesota's Leslie Frazier were fired after the season. Under Jackson, the Raiders tied with Philadelphia for 8th in play design differential. All of the teams that ranked between 1st and 10th, except for Oakland and the Eagles, made the playoffs. No team ranked lower than 16th (Cincinnati) made the playoffs other than Denver.

Like McKenzie, a former linebacker, Allen is a defensively oriented coach. But the Broncos defense ranked just 20th in D-QCYPA (7.386), two places behind the Raiders' defense (7.209). Concededly, Denver's pass pressure ranked 7th in the NFL, a big improvement from the year before Allen got there when it ranked 30th. But most of that improvement probably was attributable to the addition of rookie Von Miller and Elvis Dumervil returning from an injury. Miller and Dumervil will not be joining Allen in Oakland.

Jackson was an offensively oriented coach. Using his play designs, the Raiders ranked 7th in QCYPA (7.942), a figure that was better than playoff qualifiers Houston, Pittsburgh, Detroit, Atlanta and San Francisco. Oakland achieved that ranking despite losing starting quaterback Jason Campbell to a broken collar bone in Week 6, transitioning through Kyle Boller, and getting Carson Palmer off the beach.

Once Jackson got Palmer acclimated after the bye week, he torched Allen's defense for 332 yards and 3 TDs (9.886 QCYPA) in a Week 9 meeting with Denver. The Broncos prevailed, 38-24, not because Allen's defense stopped the Raiders, but because Palmer threw 3 interceptions (a blemish that is not likely to disappear under Allen), Tim Tebow sprung the triple option on the Raiders' defense, and Eddie Royal returned a punt for a touchdown.

Finally, you have to wonder if McKenzie watched the Broncos 45-10 divisional round loss to New England. In that game, Patriots' quarterback Tom Brady tossed 6 touchdown passes--five in the first half--and did whatever he wanted to Allen's defense. Duing the regular season, Green Bay's Aaron Rogers and Detroit's Matthew Stafford also easily solved the Broncos' defense in lopsided wins.

Maybe Allen will prove to be an excellent coach and McKenzie's hire will be justfied.

But at this point in time, the coaching statistics suggest that McKenzie wanted a head coach who owes him allegiance for his job more than he wanted performance on the field.

Good luck Raiders' fans.

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Championship Round Playoff Preview

NATIONAL FOOTBALL CONFERENCE

San Francisco (-2.5) vs. New York Giants

PLAY DESIGN DIFFERENTIAL RANKINGS: San Francisco 15th; NY Giants 5th
PLAYER PRODUCITIVITY DIFFERENTIAL RANKINGS: San Francisco 14th; NY Giants 4th
TURNOVER MARGIN: San Francisco 1st (+28); NY Giants T7th (+7)

When the teams met in Week 10, San Francisco held on for a 27-20 win in a game in which the coaching statistics were even closer than the final score. New York was less than one percent better designed than the 49ers and less than 1/4 point more productive. If Justin Smith had not knocked down Eli Manning's fourth down pass from the San Francisco 10-yard line, the game probably would have ended in a tie and the teams would have gone to sudden death. The 49ers played almost the entire game that day without runnning back Frank Gore, but the Giants played the entire game without running back Ahmad Bradshaw. In addition, New York linebacker Michael Boley missed the second half of the game, and San Francisco tight ends Vernon Davis and Delanie Walker broke loose with him out of the game. However, when their respective entire bodies of work from the regular season are considered, it is clear that the Giants are the better designed and more productive team. The 49ers defense is sound and Justin Smith has been an unstoppable pass rusher at times, but the secondary was hurt by Dallas and Arizona in the regular season and New Orleans in the second half last week. All of these teams had receivers who could make big plays and New York does too with Hakeem Nicks, Victor Cruz, and Mario Manningham. New York ranked right behind the Saints in the regular season in both play design and player productivity differential. If Manning has time to throw, he will make big plays too. Turnovers have been the great equalizer all year for San Francisco. Turnovers did in New Orleans against the 49ers just as they did in the Giants in Week 10 when Manning threw two interceptions, one of which led directly to a Kendall Hunter touchdown run. San Francisco has been magical all year. But it took every last drop of effort and magic to subdue the Saints. It is hard to see the 49ers being able to wring that kind of performance and perserverence from themselves again so soon. But there again, San Francisco rarely has failed to surprise all year.
QC's Pick: NY Giants (SU and ATS)

AMERICAN FOOTBALL CONFERENCE

New England (-7.5) vs. Baltimore

PLAY DESIGN DIFFERENTIAL RANKINGS: New England 7th; Baltimore 10th
PLAYER PRODUCITIVITY DIFFERENTIAL RANKINGS: New England 3rd; Baltimore 13th
TURNOVER MARGIN: New England 3rd (+17); Baltimore T11th (+2)

When these teams met last year, Baltimore quarterback Joe Flacco torched New England's pass defense for 285 yards passing and two touchdowns on only 35 attempts (8.3 QCYPA) and did not commit a turnover. The Ravens defense battered Tom Brady (.568 pass pressure), who was not very productive (6.3 QCYPA) and threw two interceptions. But Baltimore still lost in overtime, 23-20. Candidly, it is hard to imagine that Flacco can be any more productive or that Brady could be any less productive. That is the Ravens' problem. New England is less than one percent better designed than Baltimore as measured by design differential. But the Patriots are much more productive as measured by player productivity differential. Tom Brady simply gets more bang for his buck from the Patriots' offensive designs than Flacco gets from offensive coordinator Cam Cameron's maligned designs. It also seems unlikely that the Patriots, who committed two turnovers in their 45-10 win over Denver in the divisional round after being plus-17 turnovers during the regular season, will give Baltimore two or more turnovers again. So Flacco will have to earn everything he gets. Looking at each team's entire regular season body of work, the only area where the the Ravens are substantially better is pass defense. But Baltimore's third-ranked pass rush has not gotten much pressure lately and San Diego's Philip Rivers showed what a proven passer like Brady can do to the Ravens' secondary if given time to find receivers. The 7.5 point spread is set just about perfectly so your guess is as good as QC's as to whether New England will cover. But its a pretty good bet that Belichick, Brady and the rest of the Patriots will win straight up and return to the Super Bowl for the fifth time in the last 12 years.
QC's Pick: New England (SU and ATS)

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Divisional Round Thoughts

The play call San Francisco's Jim Harbaugh and Greg Roman made for quarterback Alex Smith's sweep for a fourth quarter touchdown in the 49ers 36-32 win over New Orleans was the call of the year. With Saints' defensive coordinator Gregg Williams bringing a big blitz from the opposite side, it was the perfect call. Those who said Smith made a mistake in scoring the touchdown rather than pulling up at the 1-yard line so that San Francisco could bleed clock are talking silly talk. Such a decision fits in the category of play design. Nobdy designs a pull-up play when trailing in the fourth quarter. Besides, the touchdown required New Orleans to score a touchdown of its own and, if San Francisco had succeeded on the subsequent two-point PAT, even that only would have tied the game. Saints quarterback Drew Brees and tight end Jimmy Graham bailed Williams out with a long touchdown pass after Smith's scoring run. But Williams just could not keep his hand off the stove and Smith burned him again with the late touchdown pass to tight end Vernon Davis that won the game.

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Yes, New York's defense played very well in the Giants 37-20 whipping of Green Bay and yes the Packers' four turnovers doomed their effort to repeat as Super Bowl champions. But what really did in coach Mike McCarthy's team was the near total absence of a pass rush. In the first half, New York quarterback Eli Manning had all day and night to throw and shredded Green Bay's pass defense. Last year, the Packers ranked first in the NFL in QC's pass pressure statistic. This year, Green Bay ranked 32nd, dead last. QC still can't figure out how the Packers went from first to worst in pass pressure. Interior rusher Cullen Jenkins signed with Philadelphia in the off-season and the Eagles ranked second in pass pressure. Jenkins is a good pass rusher, but he's not that good.

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Baltimore's 20-17 win over Houston was marked by nine Ravens' punts. The game was that boring.

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Prior to meeting in Foxboro, New England and Denver ranked, repectively, as follows in QC's key play design differential, player productivity differential, and turnover differential statistics: Patriots: 7th, 3rd and 3rd; Broncos: 27th, 25th, and 27th. In light of those numbers, New England's 45-10 wipeout hardly looks surprising.

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Divisional Round Playoff Preview

NATIONAL FOOTBALL CONFERENCE

San Francisco (+3.5) vs. New Orleans

PLAY DESIGN DIFFERENTIAL RANKINGS: San Francisco 15th; New Orleans 4th
PLAYER PRODUCITIVITY DIFFERENTIAL RANKINGS: San Francisco 14th; New Orleans 2nd
TURNOVER MARGIN: San Francisco 1st (+28); New Orleans T19th (-3)

San Francisco defensive coordinator Vic Fangio has had two weeks to get ready for Sean Payton, Drew Brees, and the rest of the Saints’ scorching-hot offense. The 49ers defense will be ready. But, to put it bluntly, San Francisco cannot win this game without turnovers. Quarterback Alex Smith and running back Frank Gore will have some success against the New Orleans defense—probably more than most people expect—but they won’t be able to keep up with Brees if New Orleans is mistake free. Fangio’s defense is the best in the red zone in the NFL. If his defenders can turn Brees over a time or two and force the Saints to settle for field goals a couple of other times, Smith and Gore will squeeze out just enough offense to get the 49ers into the NFC Championship Game.
QC's Pick: San Francisco (SU and ATS)

Green Bay Packers (-7.5) vs. New York Giants

PLAY DESIGN DIFFERENTIAL RANKINGS: Green Bay 3rd; NY Giants 5th
PLAYER PRODUCITIVITY DIFFERENTIAL RANKINGS: Green Bay 1st; NY Giants 4th
TURNOVER MARGIN: Green Bay 2nd (+24); NY Giants T7th (+7)

Of all the teams in the playoffs, New York matches up the best against Green Bay. Indeed, in their regular season meeting, the Giants were better designed and more productive, but settling for field goals and few turnovers allowed the Packers to escape New York with a 38-35 win. Quarterback Eli Manning can match Aaron Rogers throw-for-throw and drive-for-drive. And he probably won’t face as much resistance as Rogers will face from Justin Tuck and the other New York pass rushers. Green Bay’s offense finished the year infinitely productive and it should have wide receiver Greg Jennings and tackle Chad Clifton back on the field. The Packers will score. Rogers is also a little less likely than Manning to generate turnovers, although Eli generally has been very good in that area. It’s possible that a rested and healed Green Bay will overwhelm New York with its efficiency and the Giants will turn the ball over as they press to keep pace. But it’s just as likely that Manning will match Rogers’ productivity and New York’s defense will make the difference and Tom Coughlin will notch another huge upset on his belt.
QC's Pick: NY Giants (SU and ATS)

AMERICAN FOOTBALL CONFERENCE

New England (-13.5) vs. Denver

PLAY DESIGN DIFFERENTIAL RANKINGS: New England 7th; Denver 27th
PLAYER PRODUCITIVITY DIFFERENTIAL RANKINGS: New England 3rd; Denver 25th
TURNOVER MARGIN: New England 3rd (+17); Denver T27th (-12)

Tim Tebow and the Broncos’ offense had its way with New England’s defense in the first quarter of their regular season meeting. Then, in the second quarter, Denver subsidized the Patriots with three turnovers and New England rallied and then pulled away. Obviously, Tebow and the Broncos cannot do that again. In addition, it is unlikely that Denver could keep up in shootout. Bill Belichick’s defense will play much more passively than the Steelers’ did last week in an effort to contain, rather than attack, Tebow. Tom Brady and Rob Gronkowski, et al. will get their yards and points when they have the ball and are unlikely to help the Broncos cause with turnovers. So for Denver to win, Tebow will have to be patient as well as mistake free and the Broncos will have to dominate the game on the ground. That is a difficult recipe to follow in the NFL. Tebow may do it well enough to cover the 13.5 point spread, but he is unlikely to do it well enough to pull off another outright miracle win. He’s only human.
QC's Pick: New England SU; Denver ATS

Baltimore (-7.5) vs. Houston

PLAY DESIGN DIFFERENTIAL RANKINGS: Baltimore 10th; Houston 2nd
PLAYER PRODUCITIVITY DIFFERENTIAL RANKINGS: Baltimore 13th; Houston 6th
TURNOVER MARGIN: Baltimore T11th (+2); Houston T7th (+7)

This is another rematch from the regular season. In the first meeting, Baltimore prevailed 29-15 over a Houston team guided by first-string quarterback Matt Schaub. The Texans, of course, will be without Schaub this time and will have to go with rookie T.J. Yates under center. Even more disconcerting for Houston is that the Ravens were minus-2 turnovers in the first game and the Texans still lost by two touchdowns. Baltimore quarterback Joe Flacco enjoyed one of his most productive games and hurt Houston with big passes to Anquan Boldin and Torrey Smith. On the other side of the ball, the Ravens defense controlled Arian Foster and Ben Tate. Quite simply, this was not a good matchup for the Texans with Schaub and its an even worse matchup without him.
QC's Pick: Baltimore (SU and ATS)

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Wild-Card Round Thoughts

Dick LeBeau is in the Pro Football Hall of Fame. His brain is part of the brain in QC's "Jar of Football Knowledge." But his defensive game plan for Tim Tebow in Pittsburgh's stunning 26-20 overtime loss to Denver was shockingly reckless. There were only two ways for the Broncos to win this game. The first was for Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger to provide Denver a bushel of turnovers. The other was for the game to be decided by five or six big plays, and not by 30 or 40 smaller plays where Pittsburgh's clear superiority would make the difference. By crowding the line of scrimmage, LeBeau dared Tebow to make big plays. And he did. Tebow posted an incredible 16 QCYPA against a defense that during the regular season allowed the average passer a mere 5.474 QCYPA, easily the lowest in the NFL. Indeed, the only quarterback this year to post a better QCYPA was Houston's Matt Schaub (17 QCYPA) and that came against the awful Tampa Bay pass defense. (As an aside, the best QCYPA posted since QC began keeping track was Drew Brees' 18.130 in a 38-17 win over New England in 2009.) It is well-established that defending option football is about disciplined assignment defense against the run and preventing big plays against the pass. LeBeau is still one of the best ever, but against Denver he looked like a beginner. The price for LeBeau's fatal design miscalculation is that the defending AFC-champion Steelers will watch the rest of the playoffs like the QuantCoach.

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In a battle of rookie quarterbacks starting their first playoff games, you had to figure one would crack. That's what happened in Houston's 31-10 spanking of Cincinnati. The Texans' T.J. Yates got away with a few questionable decisions early in the game. The Bengals' Andy Dalton was not so lucky. Particularly devastating was defensive end J.J. Watt's interception and subsequent touchdown return that gave Houston a 17-10 halftime lead. Dalton finished with three interceptions while Yates settled down and played mistake-free. That is why the Texans are going to Baltimore and Cincinnati is going home.

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In the aftermath of New York's 24-2 pounding of Atlanta, many were wondering whether this year's version of Giants is as good as the 2007 version that made an unexpected run to a Super Bowl title. They are not. They are much better than the 2007 team. The 2007 Giants were minus-9 in turnovers during the regular season and about 1.7 percent worse designed than their opponents before going on a plus-5 turnover run in the playoffs and outdesigning three of their four opponents, including unbeaten New England in the Super Bowl. This New York team was plus-7 turnovers and more than 3.3 percent better designed than their opponents during the regular season. Their domination of the Falcons was not a fluke.

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Despite running out of gas in a 45-28 loss to New Orleans, coach Jim Schwartz's Detroit Lions look like they will be a genuine contender in 2012 if their key players stay healthy. When Schwartz took over after Detroit finished 0-16 in 2008, the Lions were the third worst designed and least productive team in the league. This year, Schwartz's third in Detroit, the Lions were the sixth best designed and seventh most productive team in the league. Wide receiver Titus Young and defensive tackle Nick Fairley are young players who could make big leaps with a year of experience and running back Mikel LeShoure, who missed all of 2011 with an injury, might provide the physical runner the team lacked. Schwartz is right on schedule.

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Wild-Card Round Playoff Preview

NATIONAL FOOTBALL CONFERENCE

New Orleans (-10.5) vs. Detroit

PLAY DESIGN DIFFERENTIAL RANKINGS: New Orleans 4th; Detroit 6th
PLAYER PRODUCITIVITY DIFFERENTIAL RANKINGS: New Orleans 2nd; Detroit 7th
TURNOVER MARGIN: New Orleans T18th (-3); Detroit 4th (+11)

Detroit gave the high-powered Saints a turnover in a Week 13 loss and committed 11 penalties and still only lost in the Super Dome by 14 points. New Orleans has been dominant at home, but Lions quarterback Matt Stafford kept up the last time and QC expects him to do it again. Detroit enjoys a big edge in turnover differential and it will probably take at least plus-2 or even plus-3 turnovers for the Lions to actually prevail. Drew Brees has been so generous on the road in stunning losses to St. Louis and Tampa Bay, two of the worst teams in the NFL. But QC does not expect such generosity from Brees in a home playoff game. QC doesn't have the onions to predict an outright Detroit victory, but he probably would be less surprised than most if it happens.
QC's Pick: New Orleans SU; Detroit ATS

New York Giants (-3) vs. Atlanta

PLAY DESIGN DIFFERENTIAL RANKINGS: NY Giants 5th; Atlanta 13th
PLAYER PRODUCITIVITY DIFFERENTIAL RANKINGS: NY Giants 4th; Atlanta 12th
TURNOVER MARGIN: NY Giants T7th (+7); Atlanta T5th (+8)

New York is the most underrated and dangerous darkhorse in the tournament. The Giants rank in the top 5 in the NFL in both play design and player productivity differential and in the top 10 in turnover differential. Quarterback Eli Manning is as efficient in the fourth quarter as some of the greatest ever such as Elway or Montana. Wide receiver Victor Cruz has emerged as one of the league's top playmakers. Atlanta actually is better from a play design and player productivity perspective than it was last year when it finished 13-3. Rookie wide receiver Julio Jones came on in the second half of the year and he will have to contribute a big play or two if the Falcons hope to win this game. The Falcons are growing in the right direction, but the QuantCoach does not expect them to measure up to the Giants on the pantry door just yet.
QC's Pick: NY Giants (SU and ATS)

AMERICAN FOOTBALL CONFERENCE

Houston (-4) vs. Cincinnati

PLAY DESIGN DIFFERENTIAL RANKINGS: Houston 2nd; Cincinnati 16th
PLAYER PRODUCITIVITY DIFFERENTIAL RANKINGS: Houston 6th; Cincinnati 17th
TURNOVER MARGIN: Houston T7th (+7); Cincinnati 17th (0)

On paper, this game looks like a statistical mismatch, but Houston is not the same team on offense without quarterback Matt Schaub. The Texans are still the same team on defense and that should be too much for the Bengals who are the essence of a middle of the pack team. Cincinnati is in the playoffs because almost all of the bounces went their way early in the season in wins over Cleveland, Seattle, and Jacksonville. When the two teams met in Cincinnati in Week 14, the Texans prevailed even at minus-2 turnovers. That does not bode well for the Bengals. Further, Texans running backs Arian Foster and Ben Tate look primed for a big game after Baltimore's Ray Rice gashed the Cincinnati defense for two long touchdown runs in Week 17. QC likes Houston to win its first playoff game in team history, although the margin may be just a field goal.
QC's Pick: Houston Texans (SU and ATS)

Denver (+8.5) vs. Pittsburgh

PLAY DESIGN DIFFERENTIAL RANKINGS: Denver 27th; Pittsburgh 1st
PLAYER PRODUCITIVITY DIFFERENTIAL RANKINGS: Denver 25th; Pittsburgh 5th
TURNOVER MARGIN: Denver 27th (-12); Pittsburgh T28th (-13)

Denver somehow managed to win the AFC West despite ranking last in the division in play design and turnover differential and just ahead of Kansas City in player productivity differential. Thanks to its defense, Pittsburgh led the NFL in play design differential, but the Steelers had a major problem in with turnover differential. Still, this is a statistical mismatch everywhere else. If the Broncos win straight up, it will be one of the biggest upsets in NFL playoff history. However, if Tim Tebow eliminates the turnovers that have plagued him the last three weeks, Denver can hang in a low-scoring defensive game because with Ben Roethlisberger hobbling and Rashard Mendenhall out, Pittsburgh does not have the firepower to bury the Broncos without some turnover help. The Steelers failed to cover 8.5 points against Indianapolis, Kansas City and Cleveland so QC expects a Pittsburgh victory, but no blowout.
QC's Pick: Pittsburgh SU; Denver ATS

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2011 Season: Week 17 Thoughts

Those who are suggesting that the incredible performance of Green Bay backup quarterback Matt Flynn in th e Packers win over the Lions in the season finale somehow suggests starting quarterback Aaron Rogers is not the NFL's MVP are heretics who do not observe QC's 1st Commandment. The relationship between play design and playmaking is direct. Flynn did a great job of following coach Mike McCarthy's directions for one game. Rogers did it for 15 games. The Packers finished the year infinitely productive. An MVP selection is inherently subjective, so if you like Drew Brees setting an individual record better than Rogers producing infinitely, so be it. Just don't tell QC Flynn's performance diminishes Rogers' incredible season. That's nonsense.

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In six of the NFL's eight divisions, the best designed team in the division had the best record in the division. (Pittburgh, the best designed team in the AFC North, had the same record as Baltimore but lost the division on the head-to-head tie-breaker.) In the AFC West, Oakland was the best designed team, but the Raiders also were the most penalized team in the NFL. In the NFC West, Arizona actually was infintesimally better designed (.0002) than San Francisco, but the 49ers (plus-28 turnovers) enjoyed a massive edge in turnover differential over the Cardinals (minus-13 turnovers).

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With a strong close, Philadelphia (8-8) finished the season as the best designed team in the NFC not to make the playoffs. Turnovers (minus-14) were the undoing of coach Andy Reid's team. But the Eagles still might have squeezed into the tournment if they had not let their game in Week 2 against the Falcons get away. If Philadelphia had won, both Atlanta and the Eagles would have finished 9-7 and Philadelphia would have advanced on the head-to-head tie-breaker.

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If the NFL used QC's play design differential statistic as its first tie breaker, the NFL playoffs would look like this. The AFC would be the same except Oakland, not Denver, would be the AFC West champion. Pittsburgh would be the AFC North champion and Baltimore would be the first wild-card. Tennessee, rather than Cincinnati, would be the second wild-card. The NFC would be exactly the same.

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2011 Season: Week 16 Thoughts

QC loves underrated players and was happy to see ESPN's Gregg Easterbrook recognize San Diego guard Kris Dielman as one of the NFL's most underrated in his Tuesday Morning Quarterback column. "Among the best linemen of the past decade," Easterbrook wrote, "Dielman not only was undrafted, he had never taken a snap at offensive line in high school or college before trying the position in the pros." Well, this is not exactly true. The QuantCoach saw Dielman play high school football at Troy High School in Troy, Ohio. Dielman's official position was tight end, but in coach Steve Nolan's offense, that was an offensive line position. On the night QC was there, Dielman paved the way for running back Ryan Brewer to rush for nearly 300 yards in a win over arch-rival Piqua High School. You might remember Brewer. He was the tough running back that Lou Holtz lured to South Carolina when Ohio State passed on him. Brewer's three touchdown performance in a 24-7 win over the Buckeyes in the 2001 Outback Bowl cost Ohio State coach John Cooper his job. Coincidentally, New England tackle Matt Light also was a high school tight end in the same league as Dielman at Greenville High School.

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In their 29-14 win over the Jets, Eli Manning and the Giants showed just how meaningless completion percentage can be. Manning completed just one-third of his pass attempts (9-27). But he still posted an excellent 8.408 QCYPA. Concededly, Manning’s efficiency was built largely on one huge play, a 99-yard touchdown pass to Victor Cruz. Further, it will not be often that NFL passer exceeds 8 QCYPA while completing only one-third of his passes. But neither of those facts undermine the fact that an offense does not receive any first downs or points for completions alone and that, therefore, completion percentage is to a certain extent a cosmetic statistic.

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Most Green Bay fans probably felt good after the Packers dispatched the Bears, 35-21, to clinch home field throughout the NFC playoffs. But the victory may have concealed a fatal Green Bay flaw: No pass rush. Last year, the Packers led the NFL in pass rush, taking approximately .6 yards from their opponents every time they attempted to pass. This year Green Bay is taking barely .3 yards per pass attempt. On Christmas Night, despite Chicago’s porous offensive line, the Packers hardly got a breath of pressure on off-the-street quarterback Josh McKown. Every team in the NFC playoffs will have a quarterback who can hurt Green Bay if given time to do so and it appears they will have time. If Green Bay’s defense does not receive its usual allotment of turnovers or, heaven forbid, quarterback Aaron Rogers distributes a few turnovers, the Pack won’t make it to Indy.

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They're at it again. In 2010, the Patriots reached the midway point of the season with a 6-2 record. New England went unbeaten the rest of the way largely because it committed only a single turnover in its concluding eight games. After starting this year 5-3, Tom Brady and company have won seven games in row largely because they have committed only two turnovers during that stretch. That is simply amazing.

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Denver’s Tim Tebow looked awful in the Broncos 40-14 loss to the Bills. Tebow threw four interceptions and Buffalo returned two of the picks for touchdowns. It was Denver’s and Tebow’s second turnover-plagued game in a row. The Broncos turned it over three times the week before in a loss to the Patriots. No quarterback—not Peyton Manning, not Tom Brady, not Drew Brees, not Aaron Rogers, and not Tebow—can win at minus-3 or minus-4 turnovers. If Denver sticks with Tebow, it may just have to acceot the fact that its wins will be ugly--and its losses will be hideous. Until the last fortnight, Tebow’s greatest strength had been his ability to avoid turnovers and win close games. Let’s say that Tebow can consistently avoid turnovers and produce enough wins for the Broncos to finish between 8-8 and 11-5 on a yearly basis and stay in the playoff chase until the last few games of the season, but the wins are close and the losses are not. Will Denver’s management be able to stomach such a “style” of success? It remains to be seen.

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2011 Season: Week 15 Thoughts

After absorbing a 45-19 loss in Philadelphia, the New York Jets' player productivity differential is exactly 0. In other words, after 14 games, the Jets have been exactly as productive as their opponents. New York's turnover differential also is 0. The Jets are perfectly mediocre.

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It seemed like Oakland lost the game to Detroit on the last drive of the game when Lions quarterback Matt Stafford hit wide receiver Calvin Johnson for a touchdown and a 28-27 lead with seconds to play. But Raiders coach Hue Jackson really lost the game much earlier when he went for a first down on the Raiders' first drive of the game at the Detroit 24-yard line on 4th-and-1. The Lions held. If Oakland had those 3 points in their pocket, Stafford's heroics would have been for naught. Patience is always undervalued.

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A few weeks ago, the preseason prediction of Sports Illustrated's Peter King that San Diego and Atlanta would meet in the Super Bowl looked pretty silly. But now both the Chargers and the Falcons are rolling. San Diego destroyed Baltimore, 34-14, and Atlanta rolled over Jacksonville, 41-14. The Chargers will need a lot of help to qualify (Buffalo must beat Denver), but if you were looking for a couple of darkhorses, King's prediction is not looking so bad.

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Look for San Francisco and New Orleans to play hard to the end to secure the second seed in the NFC playoffs. Not only will the second seed be on the other side of the bracket from the Packers, that team will get home field advantage in what is almost sure to be a 49ers vs. Saints divisional round game. The teams could not be more opposite. New Orleans has been as efficient on offense as any team in the past few weeks, including the Packers, and San Francisco plays the best defense in the NFL and gets by on offense. Whoever has the home field in this game will be the favorite to advance.

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2011 Season: Week 14 Thoughts

Chad Millman, the QuantCoach is calling you out!

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Chad Millman is the Editor in Chief of ESPN the Magazine and hosts the "Behind the Bets" pod cast on ESPN. On his December 12, 2011 podcast, Millman discussed a betting theory known as the "80/20 Rule" with one of the rule's greatest advocates, Dan Farbrizio of sportsinsights.com. (Full disclosure: The QuantCoach has a 1 1/4 hour drive to work and a 1 1/4 hour drive home from work every day. His is a big fan of the "Behind the Bets" pod cast.)

"When you have a home dog in which 80 percent of the bets are on the road fave, it's a winning formula," Mr. Millman wrote on his blog. "I tested his theory this weekend and included the two 80-20 games -- the Niners getting 82 percent of bets as 3.5-point faves at Zona and the Pats getting 84 percent of bets as 7.5-point faves at Washington -- in my SuperContest five. I won both games."

Mr. Millman was referring to taking Arizona and 3.5 points against San Francisco and Washington and 8 points against New England in the Las Vegas Hilton Super Contest. Mr. Millman also chose Tennessee at home getting 3.5 points against New Orleans, a choice that was just outside the 80/20 Rule (74% of the picks were on the Saints). Finally, Mr. Millman took a pair of road underdogs: Chicago and 3.5 points at Denver and Tim "Could You Please Just Stay Dead" Tebow and the New York Giants and 3.5 points in the Jones-Mahal in Dallas.

The QuantCoach also is bumping along in the SuperContest. QC took only one underdog, Houston and 3 points with a quarterback (T.J. Yates) making his second NFL start in Cincinnnati. QC then took four favorites. He took Denver and Tim "Rising from the Dead Is Not Just for Easter Sunday Anymore" Tebow against the Bears and Atlanta laying 2.5 points to rookie quarterback Cam Newton in Carolina. The QuantCoach's theory was incredibly simple: QC was speculating that Tebow and Ryan would win the turnover battle versus a Matt Forte-less Caleb Hanie and Newton. To boot, both Tebow and Ryan played on teams that were a tiny bit better designed, albeit Denver was only better if you forgot the Kyle Orton era. Fortunately, after extensive surveying in the state of Colorado, it is clear that every single person has!

QC also went directly against hailing the Editor in Chief or the Redskins with his other two picks. QC chose the 49ers and laid the 3.5 points and chose the Patriots and laid the 8 points against Washington. Again, QC's thinking was driven by turnovers. San Francisco (+18) came into the game with a massive edge in turnover differential over Arizona (-8). New England (+8) enjoyed almost as big an edge in Washington (-13) ... and the Patriots were facing turnover machine Rex Grossman.

Here is the QuantCoach's analysis of each game and verdict on which was the "right" side of the play. Let's go to the tape:

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Arizona 21 San Francisco 19

The QuantCoach was feeling pretty fat and happy when the Niners built a 19-7 lead, but Mr. Millman got the the last laugh when the Cardinals rallied to win behind the infinite productivity of backup quarterback John Skelton. However, San Francisco finished the game +3 turnovers, just as QC speculated.

Here is the record of all the other NFL teams in 2011 who have finished a game +3 in turnovers or greater:

28-0

Here is how many times those other 28 NFL teams who finished +3 turnovers or more and won the game also covered 3.5 points:

28

Prior to the game, QC's research indicated Arizona had a 51.5% chance to cover the 3.5 points. So, without the benefit of knowing the turnover differential, the Cardinals were just slightly the better choice. But that quickly decreases to a 0% chance of victory as a team piles up turnovers, as Arizona did.

THE RIGHT SIDE: Clearly, San Francisco was the right side of this play. (Mr. Millman--and others who chose Arizona based on the 80/20 Rule or any other reason--was as lucky as any punter has been this year. And QC is not talking about Shane Lechler.)

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New England 34 Washington 27

New England prevailed and also won the turnover battle as QC speculated (2-1), but the Patriots were 1 point shy of covering the 8-point spread. The primary reason the Patriots let QC down was a ghastly interception that Tom Brady threw in the fourth quarter in the Washington end zone that could have given the Patriots a 14-point lead. You undoubtedly saw it. Its' the one that led to offensive coordinator Bil O'Brien arguing with Brady like a teen-age boy confronting his girl in a movie theater after he just saw her with another pimply faced teenager. Yeah, awkward for everyone.

If you had New England too, you also might be tempted to complain about the officiating. Washington blasted super-tight end Rob Gronkowski right in the face on what was a classic helmet-to-helmet hit, but the officials did not throw a flag and the Patriots had to settle for field goal. (To be fair, to warrant a penalty a receiver has to be in a defenseless position and "defenseless" is not the word that jumps to mind when the QuantCoach conjures up a mental image of Gronkowski.)

Also, the officials nullified a Grossman interception that enabled Washington to pick up a field goal when it flagged Andre Carter for personal foul when he made contact with the quarterback as Rex unloaded one of his patented, "off-the-back-foot, what-the-hell-was-he-thinking" heaves.

But to complain would not be sporting and we are all gentlemen here. So QC won't do it here. (Drunk in a bar by himself, that is a different story.)

Prior to the game, QC's research indicated Washington had a 59% chance to cover and the well-respectd Prediction Machine said the Redskins chances were 58%. So there were plenty of reasons to think Washington was the right choice here that had nothing to do with all that money on New England.

THE RIGHT SIDE: Washington was the right side of this play. (In the NFL, 8 points is a lot for any team to cover against any other team and a number that ol' QC always considers taking . New England needed one more--or one less--turnover to do it. Brady's waste was just too costly to turn a profit on the Patriots.)

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Denver 13 Chicago 10
Tim Tebow left the QuantCoach hanging on the cross, errr hook. The reality is that at minus-1 turnover, Denver was extremely lucky to win the game straight up. (As if you needed the QuantCoach to tell you this.)

THE RIGHT SIDE: Chicago was the right side of this play.

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New Orleans 22 Tennessee 17
The Saints prevailed when rooke quarterback Jake Locker could not find a receiver from inside the New Orleans 10-yard line on the last play of the game. QC's coaching stats reflected a close game in which the Titans were a little better designed and the turnover battle was even. "Look at the stats in this game and it's clear the Titans should have covered," Mr. Millman wrote. Of course, if Tennessee could have just played to cover and not to win, it could have nailed a chip shot field goal on the failed last play and covered. But that is not how the game is played.

THE RIGHT SIDE: Tennessee was the right side of this play.

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NY Giants 37 Dallas 34

QuantCoach's design differential statistic said there was 0% difference between these teams and they were about the same in turnover differential with Dallas at +5 and New York at +4. But for a timeout that nullified a Cowboys' successful game-tying field goal and Jason Pierre-Paul's block of the ensuing second try, the game would have ended in a tie. It probably still would have been tied after sudden death overtime.

THE RIGHT SIDE: New York Giants were the right side of this play. (When there is 0% difference between the teams, take the points. Duh.)

Atlanta 31 Carolina 23
Confession: When the Falcons trailed at halftime, 23-7, the QuantCoach had pretty much written off Mike Smith's team. Even deep in the fourth quarter after Atlanta had rallied to take a 24-23 lead, Cam Newton had subsidized Atlanta with 2 turnovers, and Olinda Mare had missed a 36-yard field goal, QC was still looking at a bitter beat because the Falcons had yielded a safety early in the game. Then, .... a miracle. Atlanta quarterback Matt Ryan and rookie wide receiver Julio Jones teamed up for a 75-yard touchdown, the kind of touchdown Atlantans had hoped to see more of this year.

THE RIGHT SIDE: Atlanta was the right side of this play. (Teams that are +2 turnovers like the Falcons cover 3 points over 80% of the time.)

Houston 20 Cincinnati 19
There is no explanation for the Texans winning this game. The Bengals were the better designed team and +2 turnovers. As stated above, a team that is +2 turnovers will cover 3 points more than 80% of the time. Just as Mr. Millman was purely lucky with his positive Arizona result, QC was purely lucky with this result.

THE RIGHT SIDE: Cincinnati was the right side of this play.

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The bottom line is this: The 80/20 Rule is baloney, but it is not, strictly speaking, for suckers. While the percentage of money bet on a road favorite as a percentage of the total amount wagered on the game could not possibly have any acutal cause and effect relationship on the game itself, usually, a team to which the 80/20 Rule applies will be a team getting a relatively large amount of points from a better team, such as Washington getting 8 points against New England. Under those circumstance, the 80/20 Rule may well track with the legitimate science that makes the underdog the better play. However, in the unusual situation where the underdog is getting less than 4 points, you still should be cautious using the 80/20 Rule. You might get lucky like Mr. Millman, but don't count on it.

Finally, according to Mr. Millman's guest on his podcast, over the last 8 years, teams to which the 80/20 Rule applies have covered about 55% of the games. After the Arizona win and the Washington cover, 80/20 Rule teams are now 13-5 in 2011, a cool .722 winning percentage.

This clearly means one thing:

It's about time for a market correction.

(Archives Home)

2011 Season: Week 13 Thoughts

Green Bay took a huge step toward achieving an undefeated season with a 38-35 win over New York, not because the Packers were better than the Giants, but because they were not. It is almost impossible for an NFL team to be better designed and more productive than its opponent every single week of the NFL season. (The last team to run the regular season table, New England, twice was outdesigned and outproduced.) Yet, through the first 12 games of 2011, Green Bay had reached that achievement. The Packers did not get there against the Giants. New York quarterback Eli Manning was a little more efficient and productive than Aaron Rogers. But Manning threw a killer pick-6 to Green Bay linebacker Clay Matthews, Jr., and that costless touchdown was enough to keep the Packers unbeaten. Barely.

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How much does Chicago miss Jay Cutler? In the first 11 games of the season, the Bears were plus-11 turnovers and 7-4 with Cutler at quarterback. In the two games without him and Caleb Hanie at quarterback, Chicago is minus-4 turnovers and 0-2 after Hanie threw three interceptions for the second consecutive week in a 10-3 loss to Kansas City.

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Dallas coach Jason Garrett disobeyed QC's 8th Commandment and it turned what would have been a 16-13 win over Arizona into a 19-13 overtime loss. As stated in the 8th Commandment, special teams involve virtually no play design and a field goal attempt involves no play design at all. All a coach can (and should) do is watch. But, as Cowboys kicker Dan Bailey lined up to attempt a game-winning 49-yard field goal on the last play of regulation time, Garrett abandoned his spectator status and called a timeout. His untimely buttinski nullified Bailey's successful kick. Garrett snatched defeat from the jaws of victory after Bailey missed the retry and the Cardinals scored in overtime on pass from quarterback Kevin Kolb to LeRod Stephens-Howling.

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As stated in QC's 10th Commandment, sometimes statistics lie. Coaching stats were bigger liars than Jim Carey in Miami's 34-14 demolition of Oakland and New England's 31-24 wipeout of Indianapolis. In both games, the final coaching statistics indicated the losing team was the better designed team. But those deceptive stats were built exclusively on huge outputs against soft pass defense after the outcome had been decided by losing quarterbacks Carson Palmer (9-11-153-2 TDs on last two Raiders drives) and Dan Orlovsky (17-19-234-2 TDs in the fourth quarter).

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2011 Season: Week 12 Thoughts

On Sunday, Denver defeated San Diego in overtime, 16-13, and Houston outlasted Jacksonville, 20-13. Both winners ran the ball more than 30 times and threw fewer than 20 times. With Tim Tebow at quarterback, a bruising runner, the Broncos did it by choice. With injuries to starting quarterback Matt Schaub and backup Matt Leinarty, the Texans did it out of necessity. Nevertheless, the recipe was effective. The victories raised the record of NFL teams in this millenium who run 30 or more times and throw fewer than 20 times to 225-9, a cool .922 winning percentage.

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Arizona coach Ken Whisenhunt can thank rookie defensive back Patrick Peterson for the 23-20 win over St. Louis. Again. As he did a few weeks ago in win over the Rams and in the first week of the season in a win over Carolina, Peterson provided the winning points on a punt return. (He also returned a punt for a touchdown in a 30-27 loss to Baltimore.) Cardinals running back Chris Wells churned out more than 200 yards to power Whisenhunt's offense, but Arizona would not not have won without Peterson's return.

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The QuantCoach would like to be in the Harbaugh family den the first time Baltimore coach John, San Francisco coach Jim, and their father Jack discuss the inaugural Harbowl honestly. John's Ravens prevailed over Jim's 49ers, 16-13, but they got quite bit of help from the officials. A questionable chop block penalty negated a 75-yard touchdown pass from San Francisco's Alex Smith to Ted Ginn and a pass interference penalty transformed a 49ers interception into a 50-yard gain and subsequent field goal for the Ravens. After the game, Jim Harbaugh said publicly that the penalties were justified. QC wonders if he would say the same thing privately.

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For 11 games, Chicago won by taking care of the football (plus-11 turnover margin) and great special teams. Without injured quarterback Jay Cutler, that all ended in a 25-20 loss to Oakland. Cutler's replacement, Caleb Hainie threw three interceptions and Raiders' punter Shane Lechler (80 yard punt) and kicker Sebastian Janikowski (6 field goals) dominated the game.

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There really is no good explanation for how the New York Jets beat Buffalo, 28-24. The Bills were better designed, more productive, and plus-2 turnovers. Buffalo quarterback even picked on Jets super-DB Darrell Revis. On the other side of the ball, New York's productivity was pedestrian everywhere but in the red zone, where quarterback Mark Sanchez threw a career high four touchdown passes.

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2011 Season: Week 11 Thoughts

Cincinnati lost for the second week in a row, 31-24, to the Ravens. Quarterback Andy Dalton has played like a rookie the past two weeks, throwing five interceptions. Coach Marvin Lewis' defense does not receive as much national attention as its counterparts in Pittsburgh and Baltimore, but it is nearly as good. If Dalton can regain his form from earlier in the season and eliminate the turnovers, the Bengals could squeeze into the playoffs. If he cannot, a better than expected season could slip away from Cincinnati.

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Atlanta won its fourth game in its last five outings, 23-17 over Tennessee. The Falcons dominated much of the game and held a 23-3 lead late in the third quarter. Quarterback Matt Ryan generated infinite productivity and running back Michael Turner banged out 100 yards on the ground. Atlanta got off to a slow start, but the Falcons seem to be getting stronger as the season progresses and it would not be surprising if they overtake New Orleans in the NFC South before the year is over.

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It is just hard to imagine Green Bay finishing undefeated after watching Tampa Bay's mediocre offense gouge the Packers defense. Quarterack Aaron Rogers was his usual unstoppable self, but the Buccaneers did not help the Packers with turnovers as much as most other teams have in 2011. As a result, Green Bay found itself hanging on in the fourth quarter until Rogers hooked up with Jordy Nelson and Tramon Williams sealed the win with an interception. Rogers ability to deliver infinite or near infinite productivity every week has been amazing. But if he and his offensive teammates fall short one week, you have to think the Pack will go down.

(Archives Home)

2011 Season: Week 10 Thoughts

Better designed teams rebounded from a 7-7 performance in Week 9 to post a sparkling 14-2 record in Week 10. But not all were happy. Indeed, the NFL's best designed team was downright blue.

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Houston destroyed Tampa Bay, 37-9, in a game that was not even as close as the 28 point difference would indicate. It was the second straight impressive win for the Texans. Quarterback Matt Schaub posted a preposterous 17.0 QCYPA and the Bucs subsidized Wade Phillips' defense with 4 turnovers. All of this left Houston as the NFL's best designed team (.0825 HA) and second in the NFL in turnover margin at plus-11. And then a day later the Texans learned that Schaub likely will miss the rest of the season with a foot injury. To paraphrase Forest Gump: "That's tough. And that's all I'm goin' to say about that."

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Cleveland showed why coaches often hate special teams in its 13-12 loss to St. Louis. Despite not scoring a touchdown the Browns looked to be in good shape with a 12-10 lead as Josh Cribbs started upfield with a punt return. Then the Rams tore the ball away from Cribbs, fell on the fumble, and kicked a field goal. Still, quarterback Colt McCoy came back and led Cleveland into position for kicker Phil Dawson to attempt his fifth field goal of the day, a chip shot 22-yarder. But the Browns botched the snap and with the timing off Dawson pushed his attempt wide and the Rams escaped with the win. And you thought "solid in the kicking game" was just a coaching cliché.

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Would the real Baltimore Ravens please identify themselves. A week afer rallying to defeat arch-rival Pittsburgh in the closing seconds, Jim Harbaugh's team was in perfect position to take control of the tough AFC North when they arrived in Seattle to face the 2-6 Seahawks. Sure, Seattle can be a tough place to play, but if you are a team on a path to the Super Bowl, it's clearly a game you win. But Baltimore did not win. Seattle quarterback Tarvaris Jackson and running back Marshawn Lynch had a relatively easy time with the Ravens vaunted defense and kicker Steven Hauschka nailed 5 field goals, including two that Baltimore set up by fumbling kickoff returns. Since receiving 7 turnovers from the Steelers in Week 1, coach Jim Harbaugh's team is an uncharacterist minus-6 turnovers over its last 8 games.

(Archives Home)

2011 Season: Week 9 Thoughts

If you look at the coaching statistics, it appears that Week 9 was a frustrating week for play designers as better designed teams needed a Chicago upset of Philadelphia on Monday Night Fooball just to reach .500 (7-7). But if you go behind the coaching statistics, there were some pretty interesting play design out there.

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Nothing was more interesting than Denver's 38-24 upset of Oakland. While Raiders' quarterback Carson Palmer generated infinite productivity, he also threw three interceptions. On the other side of the ball, Broncos quarterback Tim Tebow played turnover-free, ran for over 100 yards, and threw a pair of touchdown passes. Denver's innovative play design, which included Tebow running the option, did not show up in the play design statistics (which are based on passing), but it was the difference between winning and losing. As a team, the Broncos averaged 7.8 yards per rush, which would be a very respectable per pass average. Of course, Tebow's performance came against one of the worst run defenses in football. But, still, if one uses one's imagination, then maybe, if Tebow can run the option and stay healthy, then possibly....

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Houston spanked Cleveland 30-12 in a game that was never really a game. The Texans usually out-design and out-produce their opponents, but in this case Matt Schaub generated miniscule productivity (2.19). So how did Houston win so decisively? After the Texans took a 7-0 lead, the Browns turned the ball over on a fumble and Houston immediately expanded its lead to 14-0. After that, with its rushing game and defense in high gear, Schaub hardly needed to pass. Houston's 6.53 yards per rush was higher than either Schaub's or Colt McCoy's yards per pass attempt.

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New Orleans is a team that usually lives and dies with the pass, but in a 27-16 win over Tampa Bay, running back Mark Ingram and the Saints ran wild. New Orleans averaged nearly 7 yards per rush. As a result, even though the coaching statistics said the Bucs were a little better designed, the Saints were a little bit more produtive. This happens, occassionally, when teams average per pass attempt is pretty close, but one team has much higher yards per rush attempt. As they say, there lies, damn lies, and (coaching) statistics.

(Archives Home)

2011 Season: Week 8 Thoughts

Week 8 of the 2011 season was defined by one monster upset, several near upsets, and bunch of mistakes in the kicking game and some untimely penalties.

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In St. Louis, the winless Rams stunned the NFC South-leading Saints, 31-21. St. Louis ran all over New Orleans, both offensively and defensively (7 sacks), but it was a first quarter blocked punt by rookie Robert Quinn that jump-started the upset. In Baltimore, Arizona defensive back Patrick Peterson returned a punt for a touchdown, but the Ravens rallied in the second half to win on a last-second Billy Cundiff field goal, 30-27.

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Minnesota rookie QB Christian Ponder's duel with Carolina rookie QB Cam Newton was quite a show. In the end, the Vikings productivity (8.98) and the Panthers productivity (895) was nearly identical. However, Minnesota prevailed, 24-21, because kicker Ryan Longwell made his field goal attempt while Carolina kicker Olinda Mare missed his attempt after a holding penalty on wide receiver Steve Smith wiped out a Newton run that would have set the Panthers up with a first down on the Minnesota 2-yard line deep in the fourth quarter.

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Seattle actually was better designed and more productive than Cincinnati in a 34-12 loss to the Bengals. What the coaching statistics did not show is that Cincinnati got a punt return for a touchdown from Brandon Tate and an interception return for a touchdown from Reggie Nelson. The Seahawks still may not have won without those plays, but they played much better than the final score indicated.

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Poor Norv Turner. His unexpectedly gritty Chargers went into Arrowhead Stadium and outproduced the Chiefs. San Diego also would have won, rather than losing 23-20 in overtime as it did, if the officials had not made a terrible offensive pass interference call on tight end Antonio Gates. The blown call nullified a Philip Rivers touchdown pass to Gates. On the play, Kansas City safety John McGraw grabbed and held one of Gates' arms, but it was Gates who was called for the penalty. Still the Chargers were in position to win in regulatioin until Rivers fumbled a snap with San Diego in position to kick a game winning field goal. Of course, Turner had nothing to do with any of this. But the media immediately began to question his job security. Will they ever learn. Probably not.

(Archives Home)

2011 Season: Week 7 Thoughts

If your team did not have a star quarterback in Week 7 (Green Bay, Pittsburgh, New Orleans, Houston, and Carolina roled behind outstanding passer performances) and you enjoy defense, then Week 7 was for you.

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In Cleveland, the Browns outlasted Seattle 6-3. Both Cleveland QB Colt McCoy and Seahawks QB Charlie Whitehurst produced well below the JaMarcus Cable. Special teams also played a big role as Seattle defensive lineman Red Bryant blocked two field goals and a penalty wiped out Leon Washington's punt return for a touchdown. In the end, the Browns' defense was just a little more stingy.

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For a large portion of San Diego's game in New York against the Jets, the Chargers looked downright gritty. Quarterback Phil Rivers was not having much of a day, but New York provided a couple of turnovers and San Diego seemed to be in control. Then Jets defensive back Darrell Revis returned an interception from the Jets' red zone to the Chargers red zone. In the end, the player productivity of each team was identical, so it was Revis' big play that made the difference in New York's 27-21 victory.

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Miami bottled up Denver quarterback Tim Tebow for 55 minutes. Then Tebow exploded, generating infinite productivity, two touchdowns, a two-point conversion, and a field goal in the last 3 minutes of the game and overtime. In the end, Tebow's productivity (2.21) was just above the JaMarcus Cable in the 18-15 win, which may never have happened if Dolphins coach Tony Sparano had not chased an additional point in the fourth quarter by going for a 2-point conversion instead of near certain kick.

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Jacksonville played lights out defese to spark the Jaguars to 12-7 upset of Baltimore. Rookie QB Blaine Gabbert's productivity was well below the JaMarcus Cable, but Jacksonville's defense smothered Joe Flacco, Ray Rice, et al. and kicker Josh Scobee nailed three field goals from more than 50 yards. In QC's opinion, Scobee is the best kicker in the NFL. If the Jaguars continue to play great defense and lean on Scobee, they could hang around a little bit in the AFC South until Houston asserts itself despite fielding the worst offense in the NFL.

(Archives Home)

2011 Season: Week 6 Thoughts

Passing the football is the key to production in the NFL, but in Week 6, the NFL somewhat returned to the days of Vince Lombardi. Teams that ran the ball more than their opponents went a perfect 13-0.

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In Detroit, San Francisco and Frank Gore ran over the Lions and knocked them from the ranks of the unbeaten. But QC is still skeptical. The 49ers were -2 turnovers and less productive than Detroit. San Francisco won because it averaged 7 yards per rush, a passing figure, and because tight end Delanie Walker was right over the goal line when his knee came down on the fourth down, game-winning touchdown pass. If Walker's knee comes down 1-inch sooner, Detroit is still unbeaten.

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Pittsburgh returned to its roots in a 17-13 win over Jacksonville. After the Steelers jumped to a big 17-0 early lead, Mike Tomlin bludgeoned the usually competent Jaguars run defense with Rashard Mendenhall. Ben Roethlisberger is one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL, but Pittsburgh is nearly unbeatable when it runs the ball and requires only an occasional big play from Big Ben because it minimizes the Steelers' turnovers.

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Things looked bad for Atlanta going into its game with Carolina with rookie wide receiver Julio Jones out with an injury. But it may have been the best thing for the Falcons. Without Jones, Atlanta got back to running Michael Turner and avoiding turnovers. That strategy had the Falcons all even with the Panthers late in the second half. When Cam Newton melted down and threw a pair of fourth quarter interceptions, the Falcons cashed in touchdowns and won going away, 31-17. That was Mike Smith's best recipe in 2010 when Atlanta finished 13-3.

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In the Giants 27-24 win over Buffalo, quarterback Eli Manning was his usual highly productive self. But New York would not have won without Ahmad Bradshaw's 100-plus rushing yards and three touchdowns. On the other side of ball, the Bills, who finised -2 turnovers after coming into the game plus-11 turnovers, would not have been anywhere near the Giants without Fred Jackson's swerving 80-yard touchdown run.

(Archives Home)

2011 Season: Week 5 Thoughts

Unlike QC, Oakland Raiders' owner, Al Davis, who passed away the day before his team met the Houston Texans in Week 5, had limited faith in play design.

"One thing coach (Davis) always taught me was he said: 'Hue don't believe in plays, believe in players and eventually the players will make plays for you,'" Oakland coach Hue Jackson said after the Raiders defeated the Texans, 25-20. "And that's what I did. I could just hear him saying that to me the whole time. Believe in your players and not the plays."

As QC's 8th Commandment states, Davis' view is true with respect to special teams. (Davis' view is false with respect to offensive production and defensive production.) In Week 5, several play designers got a leg up from their specialists.

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No individual player was responsible for this team's victory in Week 5 more than Oakland kicker Sebastian Janikowski. Oakland's strong-legged kicker booted three field goals of 50 yards or more to tie an NFL record, including 55-yard and 54-yard boots. Advanced NFL Stats has found that Janikowski is superior to the average player when it comees to long-range field goals. Appropriately, on the day after Davis passed, Janikowski made Davis' investment of a first-round pick in a kicker pay off.

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Green Bay and New England have been infinitely productive on offense all year. But in Week 5, neither team would have won without an outstanding performance from a kicker. In the Packers' 25-14 win over Atlanta, kicker Mason Crosby's three field goals kept Green Bay in the game until quarterback Aaron Rogers and receivers James Jones and JerMichael Finley could strike and his fourth field goal iced the victory. In New England, kicker Steven Gostkowski's three field goals provided the Patriots with their margin of victory in a 30-21 win over the New York Jets.

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San Diego's special teams have cost head coach Norv Turner and the Chargers plenty of victories in the past. But in a 29-25 win over Denver, kicker Nick Novack's five field goals enabled San Diego to overcome Philip Rivers' early pick-6 and hold off a Broncos' rally led by Tim Tebow.

(Archives Home)

2011 Season: Week 4 Thoughts

Two of the oldest saws you will hear from NFL coaches are "We have to avoid turnovers" and "We have to be solid in the kicking game." But there is a firm factual foundation upon which these cliches are built. In Week 4, that foundation was on full display as better coached teams finished 10-6. In the six defeats, the better coached team that lost was negative turnovers five times and, in the other, well.... don't kick to Devin Hester.

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QC wonders if there are any mommas out there who tell coordinators like Ron Rivera not to be head coaches. If so, it is probably because of Sundays like the one Rivera endured in 34-29 loss in Chicago. Rivera's Panthers were more productive than the Bears even though Chicago running back Matt Forte churned for more than 200 yards. But turnovers and special teams destroyed the Panthers. Bears defensive back D.J. Moore returned an errant Cam Newton pass for a touchdown and the incomparable Devin Hester did the same thing with an errant punt. (By errant, QC means that Caroliina punted the ball to Hester in the first place.) Rivera also saw Julius Peppers block an Olinda Mare field goal and endured a terrible offensive pass interference penalty on tight end Jeremy Shockey that nullified a touchdown pass to Shockey.

And, Rivera's day was still better than Jason Garrett's day.

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In Dallas, Cowboys head coach Garrett was enjoying his teams' 27-3 lead over the soon-to-be-not-unbeaten-anymore Detroit Lions when his quarterback, Tony Romo, suddenly spontaneously combusted. First, Detroit linebacker Bobby Carpenter intercepted Romo and ran it back for a touchdown and on the next series his teammate, Chris Houston, did the same thing. Just like that it was a 10-point game with more than a quarter to play. Still, Garrett's team was holding on by its fingernails, 30-27, when Detroit linebacker Stephen Tulloch intercepted Romo. On the Lions subsequent drive, the Cowboys defense appeared to hold on third down at the Dallas 3-yard line, which would have limited Detroit to a game-tying field goal attempt. But Dallas defensive back Frank Walker was called for holding, which gave the Lions an automatic first down and the opportunity to score the winning touchdown that turned the game into a 34-30 loss for the Cowboys.

And, Garrett's day was still better than Rex Ryan's.

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In Baltimore, Ryan could do nothing but watch as Ravens' safety Ed Reed sacked New York quarterback Mark Sanchez on the first play of the game and Jameel McClain return the resulting fumble for a touchdown. The Jets Joe McKnight got New York immediately even by returning the ensuing kickoff for a touchdown, but then Sanchez fumbled again when hit and Baltimore's Jarret Johnson returned that fumble for a score. Still, New York did not give up and made Baltimore coach John Harbaugh endure almost as much misery as Ryan. Ater Jets linebacker David Harris returned an interception for a touchdown and Nick Folk made a field goal, New York was down only 27-17 and very much in the game at halftime. On Baltimore's first possession of the second half, Flacco fumbled and New York took over at the Ravens' 27-yard line with a golden opportunity to cut further into the lead. But on the first play after the turnover, Baltimore defensive back Ladarius Webb stepped in front of a Sanchez pass and returned the interception 73 yards for the clinching touchdown.

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2011 Season: Week 3 Thoughts

Chaos rose up in Week 3 as key turnovers and other untimely miscues caused better coached and designed teams to finish 9-7. Better coached and designed teams had been 27-5 going in the first two weeks of the season. It's tough to be an NFL coach.

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Broadway loves a reprise, but New York Jets fans could only look on in horror as Oakland's 34-24 win brough back memories of the Heidi Game. In that 1968 contest, the Raiders rallied from a 29-21 deficit to take the lead. On the ensuing kickoff, New York kick returner Earl Christy fumbled the ball and Oakland's Preston Ridlehuber returned the fumble for a touchdown to clinch a 43-32 win. Of course, nobody saw it because NBC had switched from the game to the movie "Heidi," outraging fans across the nation. On Sunday, after the Raiders rallied from an early 17-7 deficit to take the lead, Jets' kick returner Antoio Cromartie fumbled and the Raiders' Taiwan Jones recovered at the New York 13-yard line to set up another touchdown. Unfortunately, for Jets' fans, they got to it all this time.

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Atlanta played virtually mistake-free beta football on its way to a 13-3 record in 2010. Not so much this year. In Tampa, the Falcons committed 3 turnovers and yielded 3 sacks to the Buccs. Still, Atlanta only trailed 16-13 with time ticking down and Tampa Bay facing a 4th-and-1 in its own territory. But Falcons' defensive lineman Corey Peters jumped off-side to give the Buccs the first down that iced the game.

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QC's 10th Commandment states special teams involve virtually no play design. But, even QC concedes that occassionally there can be play design on punt returns. In Chicago, one of those occasions occurred. With the Bears trailing Green Bay 27-17 late in the game, Chicago special teams coach Dave Taube anticipated the Packers kicking the ball away from dangerous return man Devin Hester and snuck wide receiver Johnny Knox onto the field along the Chicago sideline, far from Hester. Sure enough, Green Bay punter obliged and punted the ball right to Knox. Hester played his part to perfection and pretended like the punt was short and to him. Knox caught the ball and cleanly raced down the sideline for a touchdown. But the score was nullified by a holding penalty.

That about summed up the kind of Sunday it was in Week 3.

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2011 Season: Week 2 Thoughts

If you are looking for generosity, look south and east of Oakland. There you will find the other members of the AFC West, who have combined to be -15 in turnovers so far. Kansas City (-7 TOs), San Diego (-5 TOs), and Denver (-4 TOs) rank 32nd (tie), 30th, and 29th, respectively in turnover margin. Not surprisingly, their combined record is a lowly 1-5. Even Oakland (+1 TOs) got into the act as running back Darren McFadden's third quarter fumble opened the door for the Bills to get back in the game and, ulimately, win, 38-35.

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Carolina rookie QB Cam Newton has received quite a bit of attention for passing for more than 400 yards in each of his first two NFL starts. But the coach designing the plays for Newton, Panthers' offensive coordinator Rob Chudzinski, has not. That should change. Chudzinski, who played tight end at Miami, is trained in same passing game that Norv Turner runs in San Diego. In 2007 in Cleveland, Chudzinski's designs and healthy and speedy tight end Kellen Winslow, Jr. turned big-armed journeyman Derek Anderson into a Pro Bowl passer. In the off-season, Carolina picked up veteran, former Hurricane tight ends Jeremy Shockey and Greg Olsen and those two have combined to catch 11 passes for 219 yards.

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How good did the Buffalo Bills look in those new uniforms on Sunday? In QC's opinion, they looked fantastic. In 2001 and the preceding years, Buffalo led the league in color pollution. But the Bills new threads have changed all that. If Buffalo's success continues, it will not be the first team to do so in a new and improved look. In 1981, Cincinnati abandoned the block "BENGALS" as its helmet logo and adopted the current stripes, improved from 6-10 to 12-4, and went to the Super Bowl. In 1997, Tampa Bay adopted its pewter power look, improved from 6-10 to 10-6, and made the playoffs for the first time since 1982. Just sayin'.

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2011 Season: Week 1 Thoughts

Don't look now, but the best teams in the AFC and in the NFC in Week 1 of the NFL season were ... wait for it, the Buffalo Bills and the Detroit Lions. While just about anything can happen in a single week of action, keep in mind that both teams wacked teams that contended for the playoffs in 2011, Kansas City and Tampa Bay, on the road. A Bills and Lions Super Bowl would be a fantasy matchup for Buffalo owner Ralph Wilson (the founder of the Bills and a former minority owner of the Lions in the 1950s) and rust-belters everywhere. But QC is getting ahead of himself.

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As QC often says, all statistics sometimes lie. Jacksonville's 16-14 win over Tennessee was a classic example. If one looks at the final coaching statistics, it appears the Titans were the better coached and designed team. But Tennessee's apparent statistical superiority was built on one play, an 80-yard catch and run by WR Kenny Britt. If you ignore the longest pass for each team, the Jaguars' actual dominance also shows up in the statistics. In other words, this game clearly illustrated the "Delhomme Exception" corollary to QC's 10th Commandment.

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With a rookie QB (Cam Newton) on one side and a newly acquired QB on the other (Kevin Kolb), the Arizona v. Carolina game may have been the most unexpected place to find an infinite productivity shootout in Week 1. But that's exactly wht fans got as Newton passed for over 400 yards and Kolb more than 300 in their debuts with their new teams. In the end, each passer's infinite productivity canceled the other out and the oh-so-slightly better designed Cardinals prevailed on rookie Patrick Peterson's punt return for a touchdown.

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Dallas' 27-24 loss to the Jets probably still hurts. The Cowboys dominated New York statistically and built a two touchdown fourth quarter lead. QB Tony Romo seemed to be having little trouble solving Rex Ryan's defensive play designs. Then Dallas surrendered a blocked punt for a score and Romo threw an interception to Darrell Revis to put Jets' kicker Nick Folk in position to nail a game-winning 50-yard field goal. That hurts.

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You have to wonder if anyone in San Diego has a clue about special teams. After repeatedly suffering disaster on special teams in 2010, the Chargers watched kickoff specialist Ricky Schmitt consistently boom kickoffs through the end zone during the early part of the preseason. Then San Diego GM A.J. Smith cut Schmitt. On the opening kickoff of the 2011 season, Minnsota's explosive return man Percy Harvin took All-Pro kicker Nate Kaeding's shallow kickoff back 103 yards for a score. Kaeding also injured his knee on the play and is now out for the season. The Chargers release of Schmitt, who could be counted to nullify returners like Harvin and keep Kaeding out of harm's way, was as short-sighted a personnel decision as you will see all year.

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Why EPSN's QBR Did Not Make It On Television

To say the television half-life of the first made-for-television statistic, ESPN's "Total Quarterback Rating" or "QBR," appears to have been short-lived would be an understatement.

Compared to QBR, "The Tick" (8 episodes) and "Andy Barker, P.I." (6 episodes) had good runs.

On August 5, 2011, ESPN ran what likely will be the only QBR episode ever to air. Host Mike Tirico attempted to discuss the new statistic, which analyst Trent Dilfer claimed would be a "game-changer," with Jon Gruden and Ron Jaworski. But since that single episode, ESPN has not made any effort to promote the statistic or contend that, as its creator's claimed, QBR "is a statistical measure that incorporates the contexts and details of [a quarterback's] throws and what they mean for wins."

Prior to launch, ESPN's programming executives apparently did not notice that QBR's proprietary formula spit out some pretty anamolouos results. For instance, as measured by QBR, in 2008 the winless Detroit Lions' primary QB, Dan Orlovsky, was better that the Super Bowl champion Pittsburgh Steelers' QB, Ben Roethlisberger. In another example, QBR indicated that Jay Cutler of the Chicago Bears was better in 2009 when he tossed 26 killer interceptions than he was in 2010 when he cut his interceptions to 16 and the Bears reached the NFC championship.

It’s now pretty easy to see the flaw in ESPN’s creative process that causes QBR’s flawed results: ESPN foolishly attempted to commoditize the foundation of play design: film study.

According to QBR’s lead developer, ESPN used video tracking to divide credit on every NFL play between players such as quarterback, receivers, and linemen as a key component of its QBR creation process. Would ESPN ever suggest that it could put an anonymous commodity quarterback on the field and get the same result Bill Walsh got when he put Joe Montana on the field? Of course not. Yet, ESPN believed that it could use an anonymous “street free agent” in the role of Walsh, Vince Lombardi, or Bill Belichick and get a credible result. To QC, that idea is absurd.

“Studying the game and scouting off film is exhausting, repetitive work, which can quickly turn to drudgery, as there is no shortcut,” David Halberstam correctly observed in The Education of a Coach, his splendid biography of Belichick and his father, Steve Belichick, who himself was a master of football film during his days as a scout at the Naval Academy. “You have to run the film forward, run it back, run it forward again, run it back again two or three more times. To most people a quick view of what the other team did is enough. But for Steve Belichick and soon enough for his son, that quick view was a ticket into a secret world, in which you could find so much more than what was on the surface: the way different players lined up for different plays, the difference in cadences for running and passing plays—all those things that might give you an edge.”

But in order to get that edge from film study, one has to be able to not only see the isolated differences, but also simultaneously see everything at once.

"Fortunately, in my case, I can envision 11 men at one time. I can still see it," Walsh said in an interview with FoxSports. "That was at the height of my career. I had a real feel for what everybody was doing. I enjoyed designing plays to beat defenses."

In When Pride Still Mattered, David Maraniss wrote that Gerald Lodge, a linebacker at West Point while Vince Lombardi was an assistant coach there, said that "Lombardi was as valuable on defense as on offense because of his uncommon ability to notice several events simultaneously along the line of scrimmage as though they were happening in slow motion and in isolation.

'I would come out after the first series of plays on defense and Lombardi would get me on the phone and tell me what to tell each of the players on the whole defense--what the opposing team was doing differently than we expected and how to adjust to it. The ends were too split; tighten up; the quarterback is tipping off his passing plays, subtle things like that. It is hard to watch more than one or two people at a time, but he could see everybody and just rattle it off,' Lodge said."

Walsh’s and Lombardi’s ability to see everything at once is as rare as Jim Brown’s running ability or Jerry Rice’s receiving ability. For ESPN to think it could find people with such a gift on the sidewalk would have been a bit naïve to say the least.

More likely, despite the enormous number of hours that ESPN has devoted to visually broadcasting NFL football, ESPN simply failed to appreciate the rare talents of Walsh and Lombardi in this area. For one with an eye for a nuance, however, those who have the talent—like Lombardi, Walsh, and Belichick—are easy to spot as Halberstam made clear in recounting how former Baltimore Colts’ defensive coordinator Maxie Baughan and his assistants came to appreciate Belichick when the latter was nothing but a fresh-out-of-college intern with the Colts.

“What Belichick also had, Baughan believed, in addition to the work ethic and the skill with the film, was what Baughan called ‘a great cognitive instinct.’ He could watch all the film and not only get down what each play was, but perhaps more importantly, he understood what it all meant, what the thinking on the other side of the ball was. That is, he could then think like the opposing coach. From the preseason on, the coaches knew they had landed a young coach who was special, someone who had skills that almost no one else had.”

Clearly, nobody on ESPN’s QBR team had these special skills or rare cognitive instinct.

For example, based on QBR, one of the team’s members once said that QBR would help fans “understand things like why Matt Ryan is better than Joe Flacco. A big reason for that is because Flacco takes so many sacks, which hurts his rating.” However, based on QCYPA, Flacco has been better than Ryan the last two years even when you factor in sacks, as QCYPA does. Flacco has been better because on the average passing play, which includes plays that end in sacks, Flacco (about 7.27 QCYPA) gets his team a little closer to the most constant goal in football—a 10-yard gain or first down—than Ryan (about 6.7 QCYPA). The fact that Flacco is sacked more often than Ryan is irrelevant. If your team is trying to make first downs, its likely going to get closer to that goal if Flacco, not Ryan, is under center.

Still not convinced? Example 2: Last year’s Super Bowl participants, Green Bay and Pittsburgh, ranked in the top three in all of QC’s statistical categories except one: pass protection. In this category, the Packers ranked a mediocre 18th and the Steelers ranked a dismal 28th. The sieve-like state of Pittsburgh’s pass protection was about the same in 2008 when the Steelers won their last Super Bowl. And nobody has protected a passer worse in the last three years than Chicago protected Cutler in 2010, yet the Bears improved their record from 7-9 to 11-5 and reached the NFC Championship as Cutler cut his interceptions from 26 to 16.

Simply, avoiding sacks—“getting the ball out quickly” is the current ESPN catch-phrase—is not the basis of quarterbacking in the NFL.

A quarterback’s ability to “see downfield is the very basis of professional quarterbacking,” Walsh wrote in Building A Champion. “If a quarterback begins looking at pass rushers instead of receivers, he is doomed,” Walsh said.

Unfortunately for ESPN’s programmers, its QBR team spent too much time looking at pass rushers in crafting its new statistic and did not appreciate the subtle, yet critical, difference between avoiding sacks and seeing downfield, which is a strength of quarterbacks like Roethlisberger, Cutler, Aaron Rogers, and Philip Rivers.

That is what doomed QBR’s potential to be the first successful television statistic.

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