Vince Lombardi

QuantCoach.com

INSIDE SPORTS ANALYTICS
with
EDWARD EGROS
(FOX4 - DALLAS)

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THE CHALKBOARD

QC's Draft To Design 2017 NFL Mock Draft (1RD)

The reason it is so hard to know if drafting a highly touted college QB high in the NFL Draft will pay off is that a QB is a parlay bet.

As QC's 4th Commandment states, a QB is both a play designer and a playmaker. Once a generation or less, a QB--John Elway, Peyton Manning--comes along who presents obvious value on both sides of the proposition. But more frequently, a QB prospect's playmaking skills (Tom Brady) or play designing skills (Ryan Leaf) do not look up to NFL caliber.

Such is the case with the 2017 NFL Draft. Mitch Trubisky, DeShone Kizer, Pat Mahomes II, and Deshaun Watson have all flashed playmaking skills, but their play designing body of work is thin. With no clear expected value on the QB bets, the best draft to design strategy that a team holding a Top 5 2017 pick can follow is identify one of a handful of players with the "potential to be great" and select that player, regardless of position, or to trade down and increase its number of picks.

Here is how the 2017 NFL Draft 1RD would play out if QC drafted for every team:

QC's 2nd ANNUAL DRAFT TO DESIGN MOCK DRAFT

No.

Team

Pick Position

College

Comments

1

Cleveland

Myles Garrett

DE

Texas A&M

New DC Gregg Willams turned Jevon Kearse into the "Freak" (14.5 sacks; 8 forced fumbles) in his rookie year in 1999.

2

San Francisco

O.J. Howard

TE

Alabama

New HC Kyle Shannahan is a brilliant play designer and a generational TE is too tasty an ingredient to pass up.

3

Chicago

Reuben Foster

LB

Alabama

DC Vic Fangio did wonders in SF with multi-talented LBs Patrick Willis and Navarro Bowman.

4

Jacksonville

Ryan Ramczyk

OL

Wisconsin

New HC Doug Marrone knows blocking design and Ramczyk is a versatile player with big upside. (Howard is the pick if he is still available otherwise Jags should try to trade down and take Ramczyck.)

5

Tennessee

Jamal Adams

S

LSU

DC Dick LeBeau is a master with fast, aggressive, versatile safeties.

6

NY Jets

Marshon Lattimore

CB

Ohio St.

HC Todd Bowles' blitz designs only work if he has at least one lock down corner.

7

LA Chargers

Malik Hooker

S

Ohio St.

New DC Gus Bradley's designs require a rangy centerfielder at the back end.

8

Carolina

Fabian Moreau

CB

UCLA

Panthers HC Ron Rivera starts with D and the secondary is the area of his D that needs the most attention.

9

Cincinnati

Solomon Thomas

DE

Stanford

DC Paul Guenther likes to play a lot guys up front and they are starting to show their age.

10

Buffalo

Jonathan Allen

DT

Alabama

New HC Sean McDermott saw what loading up on the D-line can do when he was in Carolina.

11

New Orleans

Derek Barnett

DE

Tennessee

If DC Dennis Allen's designs are going to stop anyone, he needs super pass rushers (and Sean Payton loves a D that forces TOs).

12

Cleveland

DeMarcus Walker

DT

Florida St.

Quick gut pressure from Walker inside could make QBs easy targets for outside rushers Garrett, Ogbah and Nassib.

13

Arizona

Pat Mahomes II

QB

Texas Tech

HC Bruce Arians likes a gunslinger and Mahomes seems to have more 'slinger in him than any other QB prospect in this class.

14

Philadelphia

Dalvin Cook

RB

Florida St.

Sophomore QB Carson Wentz needs weapons and HC Doug Pederson saw what Zeke Elliott did for Dak Prescott in Dallas.

15

Indianapolis

Forrest Lamp

G

Western Kentucky

OC Rob Chudzinski is a Norv Turner disciple who wants to throw deep routes; he needs solid core protection to do so and not get Andrew Luck killed.

16

Baltimore

Haason Redick

LB

Temple

Ravens pass rush is not what it was so DC Dean Pees gets an ingredient to soup up pressure.

17

Washington

Tra-Davious White

CB

LSU

Former Wash LB Greg Manusky is now the DC and he will need some cover corners if his D designs are going to slow anyone down.

18

Tennessee

Jabrill Peppers

S

Michigan

Doubling down on versatile safeties for Dick LeBeau is a great way to play your cards.

19

Tampa Bay

Garrett Bolles

T

Utah

QB Jameis Winston is lethal when he has protection... and a TO-machine when he does not, so HC Dirk Koetter should beef up the OL.

20

Denver

David Njoku

TE

Miami

New OC Mike McCoy has to fix an offense that fell apart at the end of 2016 and a TE that can threaten the middle of the field is a good place to start.

21

Detroit

Leonard Fournette

RB

LSU

As QC said last year when he recommended Darrick Henry to the Lions: How would Matt Stafford look if he had a RB who a D had to respect on first down?

22

Miami

Marlon Humphrey

CB

Alabama

New DC Matt Burke is an design unknown, so a cover corner taught by Nick Saban seems like a good idea.

23

NY Giants

Cam Robinson

T

Alabama

HC Ben McAdoo designed around poor O-line play in his first year; Robinson could help mitigate the need to do so in YR2.

24

Oakland

Zach Cunningham

LB

Vanderbilt

HC Jack Del Rio took over D design early in 2016, but he still needs improved ingredients in the middle of the field for the Raiders to improve.

25

Houston

Mitchell Trubisky

QB

North Carolina

A low maintenance (he sat his first 3 years in college), accurate, NE Ohio grinder is just the antidote for Bill O'Brien and the Texans' failed Brock Osweiler experiment.

26

Seattle

Gaeron Conley

CB

Ohio St.

HC Pete Carroll is a master designer, particularly with rangy, tall cover corners.

27

Kansas City

Christian McCaffrey

RB

Stanford

How excited woud you be to see this guy in Andy Reid's screen game? Yeah, QC too!

28

Dallas

Taco Charlton

DE

Michigan

Remember what DC Rod Marinelli did with Julius Peppers in Chicago? Charlton (6-5+) is the tallest pass rush prospect left on the board.

29

Green Bay

Mike Williams

WR

Clemson

With Jordy Nelson getting older, HC Mike McCarthy and OC Tom Clements need to start breaking in a new No. 1 WR for Aaron Rogers.

30

Pittsburgh

Budda Baker

S

Washington

DC Keith Butler still remembers how Tom Brady and Chris Hogan shredded his back end in the 2016 AFC Championship Game.

31

Atlanta

Adoree Jackson

CB

USC

HC Dan Quinn is committed to making the Falcons D faster and more athletic and dangerous; no ingredient in this draft checks all the boxes in that recipe more than Jackson.

32

New Orleans

Corey Davis

WR

Western Michigan

It is hard to image that HC Sean Payton would not see the big and fluid Davis as an upgrade from the diminutive Brandin Cooks who was traded for this pick.

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